The war in Ukraine, gold prices, AI, and domestic robots. Financial Times columnists predict what 2026 will be like

The Financial Times has published its annual selection of predictions for 2026. Among the key expectations are a slowdown in investment in artificial intelligence, work on a peace agreement between Ukraine and Russia, a reduction in interest rates worldwide, and a further rise in the price of gold.

Russia’s war against Ukraine

FT columnist Ben Hall predicts that Volodymyr Zelenskyy will not agree to give up Donbas as part of any peace agreement. Moscow’s demands to hand over the rest of Donetsk and Luhansk regions are unacceptable primarily for military, political, and constitutional reasons.

On December 24, he officially revealed the contents of the document that formed the basis for negotiations to end the war. The plan consists of 20 points and is the result of the evolution of previous initiatives.

On December 28, Ukraine and the US agreed on almost 90% of the points of the peace plan during negotiations at the Mar-a-Lago residence in Florida and agreed to meet again next week.

In January 2026, Trump plans to host Ukrainian and European leaders in Washington.

Artificial intelligence

The FT expects the AI bubble to start deflating in 2026. Increased demand has already peaked, and investors are becoming increasingly critical in their assessment of the real effectiveness of these technologies. Large companies will survive the downturn, but venture capital funds and smaller players may suffer losses.

By 2026, Silicon Valley’s largest AI startups will have attracted a record $150 billion in investment in 2025, preparing for a possible decline in demand for AI.

In addition, the boom around artificial intelligence has enriched US tech entrepreneurs. In 2025, the combined wealth of American tech billionaires grew by more than $550 billion, primarily due to investor excitement around companies involved in AI development.

Economy and finance

• Central banks around the world, except Japan, are likely to continue lowering interest rates, even despite inflationary risks.
• Gold may rise above $5,000 per ounce due to geopolitical instability and growing deficits.
• A wave of defaults in private lending is expected, but without a systemic financial crisis.

On December 22, global gold prices rose to record levels amid expectations of lower interest rates in the US and escalating geopolitical tensions around the world. As of December 2025, the spot price of gold reached $4,404 per ounce.

The precious metals market is mainly influenced by escalating geopolitical tensions. The US tightened its oil blockade of Venezuela, and Ukraine attacked an oil tanker from Russia’s shadow fleet in the Mediterranean Sea for the first time. This led to an increase in demand for gold and silver.

Technology

• Domestic humanoid robots will appear, but only for wealthy users.
• There will still be no fully-fledged commercial quantum computer in 2026.
• A completely AI-generated song will not top the global charts or replace real performers.

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